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Field notes

50 markets your group will actually bet on.

Most of these ran in real GroupStakes leagues — names changed to protect the chronically late. The rest are begging to be posted. Steal freely: the best market is always a specific question about a specific person in your chat, with a close time and consequences.

The classics: your late friend

Every league has a kowalski. The lateness market is the founding document of the genre — one real league ran it weekly, all season.

01
will kowalski be late friday?
yesno

the original. if you only post one market, post this one.

02
how late is kowalski, exactly?
0–5 min5–2020+calls in “sick”

the multi-option upgrade. the “sick” option always gets action.

03
does the excuse text arrive before or after he's already late?
beforeafterno excuse
04
will kowalski blame traffic?
yesno

he will.

05
who leaves the party first?
kowalskijessthe field
06
does kowalski make the airport on time for the trip?
yesno

raise the stakes when real logistics are on the line.

Group chat behavior

The chat is a dataset. Bet on it.

07
will jess leave the plan on read?
yesno
08
how many messages does the chat rack up during the game?
under 5050–150150+
09
who double-texts first this week?
kyletannerdeej
10
does anyone actually book the cabin by sunday?
yesno

the trip-planning market. brutal. accurate.

11
first to send a video everyone's already seen?
kylejesssal
12
does the group photo get posted within 24 hours?
yesno
13
what time does deej finally open the app?
before 5before 7before tomorrowdon't rush deej

an actual market from a real league. he saw it eventually.

Food, cook-offs & challenges

One real league ran a 40-piece wing challenge two weeks straight. Some questions demand a second season.

14
does sal finish the 40-piece by friday?
yesno

tag him as the action so he can't bet on his own appetite.

15
hot dog or not hot dog?
hot dognot hot dog

context optional. debate mandatory.

16
what food shows up at the cookout?
bbqpizzatacosburgersother
17
who burns the first batch?
kyletannernobody
18
does anyone finish the spicy one?
yesno
19
what time does dinner actually hit the table?
6:30–6:456:45–7:007:00+

from a real league. dinner was late.

20
will the potluck have three pasta salads again?
yesno

Fantasy football & game day

Your fantasy app runs the matchups. GroupStakes runs the markets about the league — the sides get named after the managers. Want the full draft-season book? See fantasy side bets, including the League Hedge.

21
will tanner miss the draft?
yesno

the draft-season classic. post it the day the date gets picked.

22
week 1: kyle vs tanner — who takes it?
kyletanner

custom side labels mean the market speaks your league's language.

23
does last place actually do the punishment?
yesno
24
who forgets waiver day first?
kylejessdeej
25
does the big game go to overtime?
yesno
26
total touchdowns in the big game?
0–34–67+
27
does the commish's fantasy team finish above .500?
yesno

tag the commish as the action. his settlement stays trusted, his record stays public.

Pickup games & rec leagues

Real leagues run player props on their own teammates — goal totals, tournament placements, par-3 scorecards. The stakes are fake; the scouting reports are deadly serious.

28
where does the team place at the tournament?
1st2nd–3rd4th–5thworse
29
how many goals does your striker actually score?
set bands off last season

a real league lined a teammate at 12 goals. he had opinions.

30
what does kyle shoot on the par-3 course?
under 3131–3334–3637+
31
who fouls out first?
saltannernobody
32
does anyone hit a three in the first half?
yesno
33
gym check: how many of us go all five days?
0–12–34–5

Timing markets

Nothing in your friend group happens on time. That's not a flaw — that's liquidity.

34
“5 minutes away” — how many actual minutes?
under 1010–2020+
35
when does the invite for the annual trip land?
this monthnext monthnever
36
when does sal close his first sale at the new job?
septoctnovlater

new career, new market. from a real league.

37
what time does the party actually start?
on time30 min latean hour+
38
how long does the “quick errand” take?
under 3030–60over an hour
39
when does the group finally watch the show everyone's on about?
this weekthis monthnever

Big swings

Life-event markets are the highest-stakes genre. One rule: check with the subject first, then tag them as the action.

40
do they get engaged before the holidays?
yesno
41
does the roommate actually move out by june?
yesno
42
job offer by the end of the month?
yesno

rooting for someone, with receipts.

43
does the fixer-upper get finished this year?
yesno
44
does the podcast/band/side hustle ship anything this quarter?
yesno

League meta markets

The league itself is a subject. The most confident commissioner move in season one: a market on his own downfall.

45
how many friends join by friday?
1–56–1011+

post it the day you create the league. instant stakes.

46
does the commish get overtaken before sunday?
yesno

a real commissioner ran this on himself. respect.

47
will jess ever place a bet?
yesno
48
does the commish forget to settle again?
yesno
49
who wins the whole season?
kyletannersalthe field
50
does last place actually spin the wheel of shame?
yesno

it's a groupstakes thing. they spin. screenshots are forever.

Commissioner school

What makes a market good

1

Put a name in it

Markets about people in the chat outdraw markets about the news, every time. If the market is about someone, tag them as the action — their bets lock, everyone sees why, and the banter writes itself.

2

Close betting before the answer leaks

Set the close for before kickoff, before friday 6pm, before the party starts. A market that closes after everyone already knows is just a poll with extra steps.

3

Get six bettors minimum

The crowd sets the odds, and thin crowds pay boring. Pitch the whole chat before you post — the best first market comes pre-loaded with a name from that exact group.

4

Settle fast, settle loud

The commissioner's ruling is final — that's half the fun. Settle the same day the answer lands and let the push notifications do the trash talk. Leagues die in silence.

Your chat has opinions. Make them official.

Pick five of these, swap in your own kowalski, and your league has a first week. Players join free with a code.

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points, not money. bragging rights very much included.